Got back this week from a month long West Coast road trip, where I had the chance to have some great meetings for my new venture, as well as catch up with some old friends. In particular, I had the incredible experience of attending VentureBeat’s full-day mobile conference on Thursday, followed by TechCrunch’s two-hour mobile platforms panel on Friday. Both were really interesting, learned a lot from some great speakers, and managed to collect a massive amount of business cards.
While I came out with many takeaways (and many more thoughts just bouncing around my head), here are my top three insights:
1. Mobile is just a channel, not a market
2. The iPhone is the new walled garden
3. The challenge for mobile app developers has now shifted from distribution to discovery (i.e. grabbing mindshare)
Read on if you want more….
Mobile is just a channel, not a market
Which is why you get some ridiculous ideas like massive SMS coupon SPAM every time I walk down the street (I would much prefer digital signage, but that’s for another post) or ordering drinks at a bar from your phone (yes, that was once one of my ideas, but after some “market research” it was clear that the logistics were difficult, and plus bars don’t really care how long you wait to get a drink).
Mobile is a technology, people, a channel to get to your users, but not a market in itself. Just because you can now help someone do something on their phone doesn’t mean they want to do it (let alone pay for it). You need a compelling product and business model (which is why I went to business school, lets hope it pays off on this new venture…).
The iPhone is the new walled garden
This is a new one, thanks to the iPhone App Store. When Apple opened up its millions of phones to third-party developers, everyone (myself included) heralded it as the end of the carrier walled garden. Which may be true. But it also ushered in a new era, where Apple controls what applications get to your phone and which don’t. Apple has also chosen to “feature” specific apps, and word on the street is that those apps so their traffic go up 3x. Featured/ Not-featured sounds a lot like On/Off deck, doesn’t it?
Of course, this has long been Apple’s relational contract with its users (thank you Prof. Henderson, those words are now forever ingrained in my brain): We’re going to maintain a large amount of control over our products, but trust us, you’ll like what we come up with. (This may as well be Steve Job’s personal motto.) So far they’ve done pretty well, but still, I’d prefer the openness of the Internet on my phone. Also, at some point Apple will no doubt either a) Abuse their power or b) Eff things up for all of us.
The challenge for mobile app developers has now shifted from distribution to discovery
Saved the best for last – I find this one real interesting. One year ago, if you decided to develop a mobile application, you were faced with three challenges: Fragmentation (too many handsets to support), Distribution (how do you convince users to download your app), and Discovery (how do users even know your app exists)? (And of course I was working on a business idea to solve these issues, but turns out its hard to be a platform company as a startup.)
But now, with the App Store, the game has changed. Fragmentation is solved (for now) because everyone wants to develop on the iPhone. Distribution is easy because anyone can download apps via their phone or iTunes. But Discovery, yes that is still tough.
Sure, users can browse through the App Store, but right away your are competing with 999+ other applications for their attention. And if you look at the most popular applications, they are usually associated with a strong online brand (Facebook, MLB, Sony) or have already generated buzz from being early (Loopt, Tapulous). But if you’re a startup, your only product is an iPhone app, and you’re entering the game now, what chance do you have to get people’s attention? How do you grab mindshare? If I decide to develop my own app (and of course I’m thinking about it), this would be one of the main things I’d worry about.
Summary
Overall, had an amazing trip out west, met some people working on interesting stuff, enjoyed the conferences (and of course got to see old friends!). But I was really impressed by the level of mobile activity in the Bay. For a while I was hoping we could make Boston the mobile capital of the US, but for now it looks like thanks to Apple (and Google), the Valley is top dog.
But of course that doesn’t mean we won’t have innovative, successful mobile startups come out of Boston. 
